The paper emphasizes that conflict forecasting should prioritize probability distributions and uncertainty expression over point estimates.
WW3 Risk WatchWorld Development
World Development
The uncertain future of forecasting uncertainty in conflict prediction
The paper emphasizes that conflict forecasting should prioritize probability distributions and uncertainty expression over point estimates.
Related evidence
More evidence pages
AP NewsThe Latest: Israel hits Lebanon and Tehran oil depot as desalination plants become targets
Direct entanglement among the United States, Israel, and Iran, now spilling into civilian infrastructure, sharply increases Middle East theater risk.
AP NewsBahrain government says civilians among victims of latest Iranian strikes, with 6 children deadThe conflict is now producing civilian casualties beyond the core battlefield and widening regionally, increasing the risk of multilateral intervention.
AP NewsExplosions rock Iran's capital, and more attacks target Israel as US warns bombing will intensifyThe Middle East conflict appears to be moving beyond one-off retaliation toward sustained bombardment and wider regional involvement.
Reuters / YahooLithuania says Russia is expanding military units on NATO bordersThis reinforces the view that the Ukraine war is tied not only to attrition but also to rearmament along NATO's borders.
ROC Ministry of National DefensePLA aircraft and PLAN vessels detected around TaiwanTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported 11 PLA aircraft and 8 naval vessels operating nearby.
Explore