WW3 Risk WatchElevated Alert

Live heuristic estimate of a major-power multi-theater war

World War III Probability

A global risk dashboard estimating the chance that a direct multi-theater war involving major powers expands within the next 12 months. Trend history, nuclear posture, military rankings, and public-source evidence are organized in one interface.

Live estimate9.79%

Estimated probability of a direct multi-theater war involving major powers within the next 12 months.

30-day change-0.11%p
1-year change+1.16%p
Confidence band8.31% - 11.49%

Explanatory range around the current estimate.

Last updatedApr 23, 2026, 12:00 UTC

Latest snapshot in UTC.

Combined signal lift9.96%

Net contribution of active risk signals.

Three-hour captureSaving automatically

Production job records the score every three hours.

DefinitionAn explanatory estimate of the probability that a multi-theater major-power war spreads within the next 12 months.

Next 12 months

Model stack
DefinitionBaselineCurrent adjustmentLimitations

Direct conflict pressure in the Middle East, the long war in Ukraine, Taiwan Strait coercion, and North Korean nuclear buildup together justify lifting the next-12-month risk estimate toward the 10% range.

SignalPostwar baseline

Nuclear deterrence keeps the standing probability below extreme levels, but it is not realistic to treat the baseline as zero.

+1.24%p
SignalProlonged Russia-Ukraine war

As the European theater drags on, the risk of direct NATO involvement and the cost of nuclear signaling have not disappeared.

+1.95%p
SignalIsrael-Iran escalation risk

The possibility of a wider Middle East war involving the United States, Iran, and regional allies is the single largest upward driver right now.

+2.79%p
SignalTaiwan Strait military activity

The pace of PLA activity and blockade or landing exercises raises the risk of direct US-China confrontation.

+1.67%p
SummaryIsrael-Iran escalation risk

The strongest current signal is Israel-Iran escalation risk, while the total combined lift is 9.96%.

Live now
More signalsHide signals
SignalNorth Korean nuclear and missile pressure

The Korean Peninsula is its own theater, but the US-Japan alliance makes it a reinforcing variable in multi-front escalation.

+0.96%p
SignalDefense-spending surge and nuclear modernization

Simultaneous increases in defense spending and nuclear modernization are thinning the old buffers that used to slow crises down.

+1.84%p
SignalDeterrence and alliance stabilizers

Strong deterrence and economic interdependence still slow the speed at which crises turn into world war.

-0.49%p
Search clusters

Explore by topic, state, and evidence

These internal links expand search coverage across dedicated topic pages, country pages, and source-backed evidence summaries.

Topics

Topic landing pages

Nuclear mapGlobal nuclear map

Inventory, delivery systems, and deterrence posture for every nuclear-armed state.

Military rankingGlobal military ranking

Cross-country ranking with land, sea, air, nuclear, cyber, asymmetry, and alliance scores.

Risk historyWorld War III risk history

Annual, monthly, daily, and three-hour probability history from 1946 to the present.

CompareState-versus-state comparisons

Direct capability comparisons for the highest-risk matchups on the WW3 board.

States

Country profiles

North AmericaUnited States

The benchmark force: global bases, carrier strike groups, strategic lift, and extended deterrence in one package.

East AsiaChina

Its strength lies in force concentration near the Western Pacific and large production capacity, while naval and air expansion remains fast.

EurasiaRussia

Nuclear deterrence and missile-air defense power remain strong, but the burden of long-war attrition is substantial.

Middle EastIsrael

Its territory is small, but the density of air defense, precision strike, intelligence, and cyber capability is extremely high.

EuropeUnited Kingdom

Smaller than the United States in scale, but strong in NATO-integrated operations and SSBN-based deterrence.

EuropeFrance

One of the few European states with both an independent nuclear deterrent and an aircraft carrier.

South AsiaIndia

A large land force plus rising sea-air capacity lets India watch both the Indian Ocean and the Himalayan front at once.

Korean PeninsulaSouth Korea

A dense force structure built around precision strike, air defense, naval-air modernization, and the US alliance.

Evidence

Evidence summaries

AP News · 2026-03-08The Latest: Israel hits Lebanon and Tehran oil depot as desalination plants become targets

Direct entanglement among the United States, Israel, and Iran, now spilling into civilian infrastructure, sharply increases Middle East theater risk.

AP News · 2026-03-07Bahrain government says civilians among victims of latest Iranian strikes, with 6 children dead

The conflict is now producing civilian casualties beyond the core battlefield and widening regionally, increasing the risk of multilateral intervention.

AP News · 2026-03-06Explosions rock Iran's capital, and more attacks target Israel as US warns bombing will intensify

The Middle East conflict appears to be moving beyond one-off retaliation toward sustained bombardment and wider regional involvement.

Reuters / Yahoo · 2026-03-06Lithuania says Russia is expanding military units on NATO borders

This reinforces the view that the Ukraine war is tied not only to attrition but also to rearmament along NATO's borders.

ROC Ministry of National Defense · 2026-03-06PLA aircraft and PLAN vessels detected around Taiwan

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported 11 PLA aircraft and 8 naval vessels operating nearby.

AP News · 2026-03-05China says its defense spending will rise 7.2% this year, as military budget tops $245 billion

China's higher defense budget is treated not as a one-off headline but as a public signal of force-structure change extending into the 2030s.

Long-run trend

Risk trend by time horizon

Overlay annual, monthly, daily, and three-hour time series to read long-run baseline shifts and short-run volatility together.

Annual

Annual history since 1946

Post-war to today
20269.79%
Annual history since 1946Estimated annual World War III probability from 1946 to the present.1.60%7.07%12.53%18.00%
19462026
Low 1.60%High 18.00%Current 9.79%
Daily

Daily history across the last year

Recent 365 days
04.239.79%
Daily history across the last yearEstimated daily World War III probability during the last 12 months.8.63%9.07%9.52%9.96%
04.2404.23
1-year high 9.96%Today 9.79%
More chartsHide charts
Monthly

Monthly history since 2000

Modern theaters
2026.049.79%
Monthly history since 2000Estimated monthly World War III probability from 2000 to today.2.45%4.94%7.44%9.93%
2000.012026.04
Observation start 2000.01Monthly high 9.93%Current 9.79%
30-day view

Daily history over the last 30 days

Short-run movement
04.239.79%
Daily history over the last 30 daysEstimated daily World War III probability across the most recent 30 days.9.76%10.03%10.29%10.56%
03.2504.23
30-day high 9.89%Current 9.79%
Three-hour snapshots

Three-hour history over the last 14 days

Automated capture
04.23 21:009.79%
Three-hour history over the last 14 daysEstimated World War III probability saved every three hours across the last 14 days.9.71%9.98%10.24%10.51%
04.10 00:0004.23 21:00
Low 9.71%Capture interval 3hLatest 9.79%
Nuclear map

Global nuclear map

Explore warhead inventories and delivery structures on a world map, then jump straight into country pages for deeper context.

Nuclear theater

Hover states on the map to inspect deterrence posture, delivery systems, and inventory share without leaving the dashboard.

RussiaUnited StatesChinaFranceUnited Kingdom
EurasiaRussia

ICBMs, SSBNs, strategic bombers

Eurasia

Russia

ICBMs, SSBNs, strategic bombers

Continues to use nuclear signaling actively even during conventional war, which raises crisis-management pressure.

Estimated warheads4,309 warheads
Military spend$149B
RegionEurasia
Deterrence structureFull nuclear triad
Delivery systemsICBMs, SSBNs, strategic bombers
Military spend$149B
Share of inventory35%
Full nuclear triadICBMs, SSBNs, strategic bombers
More nuclear statesHide states
Global inventory12,241

Estimated total inventory from SIPRI 2025.

Military stockpile9,614

Operational and reserve military warheads.

High-alert warheads2,100+

Weapons maintained on elevated alert.

Modernization pressureRising

Deployment, modernization, and production restart are all advancing together.

More nuclear sourcesHide nuclear sources
Federation of American ScientistsStatus of World Nuclear ForcesSIPRISIPRI Yearbook 2025
Military ranking

Global military ranking

The map, country ranking, manpower, aircraft, naval assets, and force structure are merged into one globally indexable military page.

Military theater

Explore major states by map, ranking, and force-profile cards in a single flow.

United StatesChinaRussiaIsraelUnited Kingdom
North AmericaUnited States

Global tier one

North America

United States

Global tier one

The benchmark force: global bases, carrier strike groups, strategic lift, and extended deterrence in one package.

Composite score92 / 100
Military spend$997B
Rank#1
Active1,328,000
Reserve799,500
Aircraft2,800
Naval assets296
Strongest axisSea
Strategic postureExtended deterrence backed by a global reinforcement architecture.
SeaSustained expeditionary experience and mature multi-domain joint operations.Long-range power projection based on global basing and carrier groups.
More rankingsHide states
Top composite scoreUnited States 92

Average across seven explanatory capability axes.

Countries compared25 states

Includes nuclear states and major regional powers.

Comparison axes7

Land, sea, air, nuclear, cyber-space, asymmetry, and alliance depth.

More military sourcesHide military sources
Federation of American ScientistsStatus of World Nuclear ForcesSIPRIUnprecedented rise in global military expenditureGlobal Firepower2026 Military Strength Ranking
Compare

State-versus-state comparison

Select any two states and compare axis-level advantage, posture, and structural strengths in one view.

United States · ChinaUnited States · RussiaChina · TaiwanSouth Korea · North KoreaIsrael · IranIndia · PakistanRussia · Ukraine
VS
Korean Peninsula

South Korea

#8 · Alliance-backed technology force

A dense force structure built around precision strike, air defense, naval-air modernization, and the US alliance.

WarheadsNone
Military spend$47.6B
Composite score59
Active500,000
Reserve3,100,000
Combat aircraft410
Major naval assets150
Strategic postureA dense posture that combines precision strike with layered air defense.
Defense industryHigh domestic production share across artillery, missiles, naval assets, and aviation.
Combat experienceNo recent direct war, but readiness and alliance-training density are high.
US-ROK alliancePrecision strikeAir-defense networkNaval-air modernization
Korean Peninsula

North Korea

#13 · Asymmetry-focused state

Conventional quality is limited, but the missile-nuclear-cyber mix remains the core threat.

Warheads50 warheads
Military spendUndisclosed
Composite score49
Active1,280,000
Reserve600,000
Combat aircraft470
Major naval assets219
Strategic postureA low-threshold asymmetric deterrence model combining artillery, missiles, and nuclear weapons.
Defense industryA closed production model centered on missiles, artillery, and nuclear systems.
Combat experienceDefined more by sustained tension and provocation patterns than direct war.
Mass artilleryMissile saturationCyberOpacity
Balance of power
South Korea59Composite score
AdvantageSouth Korea10 point gap
North Korea49Composite score

South Korea leads on both average score and the number of stronger axes.

Winning axes4 : 3
Biggest gapAlliance
South Korea score59

Average explanatory score across seven axes

North Korea score49

Average explanatory score across seven axes

Axis advantage4 : 3

How many axes each side leads

Largest gapAlliance

South Korea leads by 71 points

Land

Ability to deploy large ground formations with armor and long-range fires.

South Korea
South Korea
68
North Korea
67
Sea

Blue-water operations, carrier and submarine employment, and sea-control capacity.

South Korea
South Korea
66
North Korea
28
Air

Air superiority, long-range strike, airborne early warning, and airlift capacity.

South Korea
South Korea
74
North Korea
24
Nuclear

Warhead scale, survivability, and diversity of delivery systems.

North Korea
South Korea
0
North Korea
30
More axesHide axes
Cyber & space

Integration of satellites, ISR, electronic warfare, and cyber operations.

North Korea
South Korea
73
North Korea
77
Asymmetry

Missile saturation, gray-zone activity, irregular warfare, and drone-cyber integration.

North Korea
South Korea
42
North Korea
96
Alliance

Alliance depth, overseas basing, reinforcement potential, and long-duration support capacity.

South Korea
South Korea
89
North Korea
18
Methodology

Warhead counts and military spending use public data, while active and reserve personnel, combat aircraft, major naval assets, defense industry, logistical endurance, and combat experience are used as supporting indicators. Land, sea, air, nuclear, cyber-space, asymmetric, and alliance scores are normalized explanatory metrics on a 100-point scale based on public operating range and force density.

Evidence

Evidence behind the estimate

More evidenceHide evidence
AP NewsThe Latest: Israel hits Lebanon and Tehran oil depot as desalination plants become targetsAP NewsBahrain government says civilians among victims of latest Iranian strikes, with 6 children deadAP NewsExplosions rock Iran's capital, and more attacks target Israel as US warns bombing will intensifyReuters / YahooLithuania says Russia is expanding military units on NATO bordersROC Ministry of National DefensePLA aircraft and PLAN vessels detected around TaiwanAP NewsChina says its defense spending will rise 7.2% this year, as military budget tops $245 billionReuters / YahooChina boosts defence spending 7% in drive to modernise by 2035AP NewsNorth Korean leader Kim inspects new warship, claims progress toward nuclear-armed navyAP NewsNorth Korea's Kim oversees test launches of new missiles as he demands war readinessReuters / YahooSenior Chinese official calls for 'resolutely' cracking down on 'Taiwan independence' separatistsBulletin of the Atomic ScientistsIt is now 89 seconds to midnightTaiwan News / ReutersNorth Korea fires multiple ballistic missiles