WW3 Risk WatchRisk history

Risk history

World War III risk history

Annual, monthly, daily, and three-hour World War III probability history, built from postwar crisis anchors and current live adjustments.

Time series

Probability trend by resolution

The long-run annual series gives baseline context, while monthly, daily, and intraday series show acceleration and volatility.

Annual

Annual trend since 1946

20269.88%
Annual trend since 1946Annual World War III probability history since 1946.1.60%7.07%12.53%18.00%
19462026
Monthly

Monthly trend since 2000

2026.039.88%
Monthly trend since 2000Monthly World War III probability history since 2000.2.45%4.93%7.40%9.88%
2000.012026.03
Daily

Daily trend across the last year

03.169.88%
Daily trend across the last yearDaily World War III probability history across the last year.8.47%8.97%9.46%9.96%
03.1703.16
3-hour

Three-hour snapshots across the last 14 days

03.16 06:009.88%
Three-hour snapshots across the last 14 daysThree-hour World War III probability snapshots across the last 14 days.9.81%10.08%10.34%10.61%
03.03 00:0003.16 06:00
Methodology

How the risk history is constructed

DefinitionA heuristic estimate of the probability that a multi-theater war involving direct major-power participation spreads within the next 12 months.
BaselineUses post-World War II military crises as anchor points and interpolates annual, monthly, and daily series between those baselines.
Current adjustmentWeights signals from the Middle East, Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait, the Korean Peninsula, nuclear posture, and defense spending.
LimitationsThis is not an oracle for policy decisions, but an explanatory estimate that organizes the current risk environment.
Related

Continue exploring

Global nuclear mapGlobal military rankingUS vs China military comparison
Explore

Connected pages

World War III probability homepageGlobal nuclear mapGlobal military ranking